Beauty is expected to become a $590 billion global market by 2030, according to McKinsey's June 2026 industry outlook. But the next phase of growth will look different from the boom that preceded it. Consumers are becoming more selective, fragrance is gaining ground, and digital platforms are changing how brands reach customers. Meanwhile, established beauty groups are positioning themselves for the next decade while a new generation of brands competes for attention.
The question is no longer simply which brands can generate the most excitement. It is which can turn that excitement into lasting demand.
Fragrance Is Becoming a Strategic Priority
On 28 October, Spanish beauty group Puig unveiled Vision 2032, a strategy targeting more than €8 billion in annual net revenue by 2032. Having generated more than €5 billion in 2025, the group wants to become one of the world's four largest premium beauty companies and the second-largest fragrance player.
Its priorities reveal where it sees the greatest opportunities. Puig plans to expand its prestige fragrance portfolio, strengthen niche brands Byredo and Penhaligon's, and develop Carolina Herrera and Charlotte Tilbury across additional beauty categories. Charlotte Tilbury is also expected to enter fragrance from 2028.
Puig's strategy reflects a broader market shift. McKinsey's 2026 analysis identifies fragrance as the fastest-growing beauty category across multiple price tiers, projecting that it will become the industry's third-largest category, overtaking colour cosmetics. Consumers are experimenting with fragrance layering, niche scents and different concentrations, while designer perfumes continue to attract demand.
The category also offers brands opportunities to create distinctive identities without competing exclusively on skincare claims or makeup trends. Fragrance can sell an aspiration, a memory or a personal signature, making storytelling and brand recognition particularly valuable.
However, growth is not confined to luxury. Circana reported that US prestige fragrance sales increased 6% in the first half of 2026, while mass-market fragrance sales grew 15%. The figures suggest that consumers are willing to spend across price points, whether trading up for premium products or seeking accessible ways to participate in the category.
The Consumer Is Becoming More Selective
The beauty industry has spent years benefiting from new launches, viral products and founder-led brands. But the criteria consumers use to decide what deserves a place in their routines are changing.
McKinsey's 2025 beauty research found that product quality was the leading purchase consideration, while a famous founder ranked among the least influential factors. Its 2026 report reinforces the shift towards efficacy, ingredient credibility and value.
This does not mean celebrity brands have lost their power. It means visibility alone is becoming a less reliable competitive advantage. A recognisable founder can introduce a product to millions of potential customers, but repeat purchases depend on whether the product delivers what it promises.
Consumers are also becoming more comfortable mixing price points. McKinsey identifies growing demand for dermatologist-backed skincare and Korean beauty products that offer visible results without luxury prices. The traditional assumption that a higher price automatically signals better performance is under pressure.
For established groups, this creates a challenge: protecting premium positioning while demonstrating why a product justifies its price. For emerging brands, it creates an opening to compete through specialised formulations, focused product ranges and clear functional benefits.
The New Brands Are More Specific
The emerging brands selected for Sephora's 2026 Accelerate programme offer a glimpse of where founders see opportunities. Rather than launching broad beauty ranges, many are targeting particular consumer needs.
Manuscript, for example, focuses on scalp health and hair longevity, applying a skincare-style approach to concerns such as thinning and greying. Dealbodies develops concentrated body-care products, while FORTA Cosmetics focuses on makeup designed to withstand movement and sweat. In fragrance, EAUSO VERT builds its proposition around culture and lived experience.
These are early-stage brands, not proof that every niche will become commercially successful. But their positioning reflects a wider movement towards more targeted beauty products, where consumers can identify the problem a product addresses and understand why it might be worth buying.
Korean beauty offers a particularly clear example of how this model can scale. NielsenIQ reported in July 2026 that global K-beauty value sales had increased 53% year on year and 131% over two years. Its growth has been supported by ingredient-led innovation, accessible pricing and digital discovery. Products and routines that once felt unfamiliar to international consumers have increasingly become mainstream.
The lesson for the next generation of beauty founders is that innovation does not need to begin with an entirely new category. It can come from improving an existing product, serving an underserved customer or introducing a regional idea to a much larger market.
Distribution Will Decide Who Survives
A strong product and a compelling brand identity are only part of the equation. The ability to acquire customers profitably and maintain distribution will increasingly separate successful businesses from short-lived trends.
McKinsey expects e-commerce to account for the majority of beauty's sales growth through 2030. Social commerce is accelerating that shift by bringing discovery and purchasing into the same experience. Yet the economics remain challenging: paid promotion, creator commissions and the cost of acquiring customers can erode margins, particularly for smaller businesses.
This is where established groups retain an advantage. Puig's strategy combines investment in its existing brands with international expansion, digital distribution and selective acquisitions. Its scale gives its brands access to established retail relationships and operational infrastructure that a young company may take years to build.
Over the next decade, more emerging brands may seek partnerships, investment or acquisitions as they look to expand internationally. Larger groups, meanwhile, will need to identify brands with genuine consumer loyalty rather than simply buying the next viral success.
The likely outcome is not a beauty market dominated exclusively by conglomerates or independent startups. It is a more competitive ecosystem in which smaller brands generate ideas and address specific needs, while larger groups provide capital, distribution and the infrastructure to scale them.
Beauty will continue to grow, but growth alone will not guarantee success. The winners will be those that understand changing consumer behaviour, deliver credible products and build businesses capable of surviving after the next trend disappears.